NFL Playoffs: Wiesguy's 2 Picks and a Prop for Seahawks-Niners

I don't know about you, but I do not mind rematches in the playoffs, I am just not fond of them in the first round. It is just a matter of personal preference (and that goes for all sports). If a team is going to knock out a rival, I just wish it was in a more meaningful spot. 

These NFC West rivals met twice during the season. San Francisco won both games on their way to winning the division. Neither game was particularly close. Nor is this one expected to be. 

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, January 14
4:30 PM ET
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Spread: San Francisco -9.5
Total: 41.5

The 49ers covered in both of the matchups this season, including winning 27-7 at home back in September. That game was San Francisco -8.5 as the team had quarterbacks Trey Lance and Jimmy G available at kickoff. Weeks later, the spread is bigger with rookie QB Brock Purdy leading the team. That says a lot about how this team is playing right now. 

Spread Pick: 49ers -9.5

This is a big number for a playoff game, especially when you have the old adage of it "being tough to beat a team three times in one season." Nevertheless, it is hard to find any sustained advantages for Seattle. Even if you think fading a rookie in a playoff game makes sense, and I am right there with you in some ways, that means you are trusting retread QB Geno Smith not to turn into a pumpkin as well. That is a lot of points, but the San Francisco defense is elite to hold back the Seahawks making a close game unlikely. 

Total Pick: Under 41.5

Both regular-season games between these teams were unders and I am looking for the same on Saturday. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan wants to keep the clock rolling with the running game and they have the personnel to do so. Even if the 49ers dominate, it feels more like 31-7, not 49-16. I do not trust the Seahawks to be able to put more than 10 points on the board. A soggy field may slow things down even more. 

Prop: Brandon Aiyuk Over 3.5 Receptions

Since Brock Purdy was forced into action they have not asked him to do too much. Down the stretch, a healthy Aiyuk was his go-to target and even though Deebo Samuel is back he should still see his fair share of targets. He has been over this total in each of the last 3 games and 1 of the 2 games against Seattle this season. My hunch is that Samuel might be a bit of a decoy this week. I like the emerging Aiyuk to get 5 grabs.